Implication of electrification and power decarbonization in low-carbon transition pathways for China, the US and the EU

Electrification and power decarbonization are essential components of low-carbon energy transition, however, the combined effects of these two factors on CO2 emissions have not been comprehensively understood, especially with decomposition analyses for key regions. We present an extended Kaya identity to explicitly express power decarbonization (ACI) and electrification (Re) factors and analyze their combined effects on CO2 emissions in China, the U.S., and the EU between 1997 and 2020 using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. We further develop a scenario framework to analyze the required Re and ACI to achieve specific climate targets in 2030, as well as emission levels from various scenarios of these two factors. The results indicate that the combined effects of electrification and power decarbonization played an important role in carbon-mitigation in China, the U.S., and the EU during 1997-2020, driving down CO2 emissions respectively by 0.9, 0.5, and 0.4 Gt during 1997-2007, by 2.6, 0.9, and 0.5 Gt during 2007-2017, and by 0.6, 0.4, and 0.3 Gt during 2017-2020. Further decomposition analyses reveal heterogeneity in the driving factors of electrification and power decarbonization evolutions across the three regions. Climate target scenarios signify that features of historical energy transition pathways may be insufficient for the U.S. and the EU to achieve their 2030 emission targets aligned with the 1.5 degrees C pathways. Suggestions on accelerating electrification process in those two regions toward their 2030 climate targets are proposed from the decomposition and scenario analyses' result.