Toward sustainable port-hinterland transportation: A holistic approach to design modal shift policy mixes

•A holistic approach is proposed to design port-hinterland modal shift policy mixes.•The approach combines system dynamic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation.•The impact of hinterland economic transition on port-hinterland transport is considered.•The effect of modal shift policy mixes on reducing transport externalities is explored.•Interactions among policy instruments within modal shift policy mix are investigated.