Projecting the future: modelling Australian dialysis prevalence 2021-30.

Objectives To project the prevalence of people receiving dialysis in Australia for 2021-30 to inform service planning and health policy. Methods Estimates were based on data from 2011 to 2020 from the Australia & New Zealand Dialysis & Transplant (ANZDATA) Registry and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. We projected dialysis and functioning kidney transplant recipient populations for the years 2021-30. Discrete-time, non-homogenous Markov models were built on probabilities for transition between three mutually exclusive states (Dialysis, Functioning Transplant, Death), for five age groups. Two scenarios were employed - stable transplant rate vs a continued increase - to assess the impact of these scenarios on the projected prevalences. Results Models projected a 22.5-30.4% growth in the dialysis population from 14 554 in 2020 to 17 829 ('transplant growth') - 18 973 ('transplant stable') by 2030. An additional 4983-6484 kidney transplant recipients were also projected by 2030. Dialysis incidence per population increased and dialysis prevalence growth exceeded population ageing in 40-59 and 60-69 year age groups. The greatest dialysis prevalence growth was seen among those aged ≥70 years. Conclusion Modelling of the future prevalence of dialysis use highlights the increasing demand on services expected overall and especially by people aged ≥70 years. Appropriate funding and healthcare planning must meet this demand.