A control method combining load prediction and operation optimization for phase change thermal energy storage system

Due to the high latent heat and load-shifting capacity, phase-change thermal energy storage technology is an effective way to reduce energy costs under time-of-use electricity pricing. A favorable operation strategy is essential to exploit the advantage of the phase change thermal energy storage system. Previous studies on the operation strategy lack consideration of load prediction, which could reduce the matching degree of heat supply and demand. This study proposed a control method combing load prediction and operation optimization based on an electric boiler-phase change thermal energy storage heating system. A deep learning-based heating load prediction model was built; on this basis, an operation optimization method using dynamic programming was formulated subsequently. The proposed method was applied to a case building located in Beijing, China. By applying the proposed control method, the energy costs of the system were saved by 10% compared to the original operation strategy in the whole heating season, and the matching degree of heat supply and demand could be close to 100%, demonstrating that the method can provide users with cheaper and the best thermally comfortable heating. The proposed method is capable of achieving optimal operation of a phase change thermal energy storage system in practical applications.