Effect of western Pacific current uncertainties on the forecasting of eddy shedding from the Kuroshio loop into the South China Sea: A case study

The process of eddy shedding from the Kuroshio loop current (LC) into the South China Sea via the Luzon Strait is highly variable and significantly controlled by the uncertainties in the Western Pacific (WP) currents. This study investigates the forecast of a strong eddy shedding event from the Kuroshio LC during the winter 2016-2017 using the regional ocean modeling system and ensemble Kalman filter assimilation method. Experiments are conducted to explore the sensitivity of forecasts to the assimilation of satellite sea surface height anomaly data from different key regions of the WP, such as the subtropical countercurrent (STCC) and Northern Equatorial Current (NEC) regions. The results indicate that the improved forecast performance of the strong Kuroshio LC eddy shedding event is mainly attributed to assimilation in the STCC region and partly owing to assimilation in the NEC region. Specifically, assimilation in the STCC region reproduces a westward-propagating cyclonic eddy that collides with the Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait, blocking the Kuroshio northward flow and causing Kuroshio LC eddy shedding. Furthermore, assimilation in the NEC region enhances the simulation of the weak Kuroshio background current, which further facilitates the formation of a strong Kuroshio background LC and the occurrence of Kuroshio LC eddy shedding.