Impacts of hybridization and forecast errors on the probabilistic capacity credit of batteries

Battery storage is increasingly identified as being among the least-cost mix of technologies in the evolving U.S. electricity mix. This study explores the marginal capacity credit of batteries using a probabilistic, reliability-based, effective firm capacity method, which we apply for multiple battery power ratings, durations, coupling types, deployment locations, and dispatch profiles within a test system that is based on the Texas Interconnection in the year 2024. We find that the capacity credits for all battery durations depend on their ability to predict the timing of reliability events. Even 1–2 h forecast errors—resulting in early or delayed battery discharging relative to the onset of a reliability event—lead pronounced capacity credit reductions, especially for 4-h duration batteries. Coupling batteries with solar mitigates the uncertainty associated with a shorter-duration battery’s availability during reliability events, primarily due to the relatively high solar capacity credit in our test system. Coupled (or hybrid) system designs with oversized solar arrays, the ability to charge the coupled battery with grid energy, and larger batteries lead to the greatest capacity credit benefits of hybridization. We do not see evidence that the hybrid capacity credit exceeds the sum of the separate battery and solar capacity credits.