A 424-year tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from Chitral HinduKush Range of Pakistan: linkages to the ocean oscillations

Abstract. Currently, the rate of global warming has led to persistent drought patterns. It is considered to be the preliminary reason affecting socio-economic development under the background of dynamic forecasting of water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semi-arid Chitral mountains of northern Pakistan are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March-August Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years back to A.D. 1593. Our reconstruction was featured with nine dry and eight wet periods 1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, 1981–1995, and 1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969 and 1996–2003, respectively. This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in west Asia, confirming its reliability. The analysis of the Multi-Taper Method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6, 16.8, and 34–38 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the broad-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of Hindu Kush mountain Ranges in northern Pakistan.