The century-long shadow of fire exclusion: Historical data reveal early and lasting effects of fire regime change on contemporary forest composition

•Fire exclusion modified tree regeneration as early as 1928, forecasting contemporary decline of pine.•Incense-cedar regeneration increased in abundance relative to pine and fir 1928–2016.•For pine, only advance (pre-logging) regeneration reached the 2016 overstory across 88 years.•For shade-tolerant spp, regeneration that established up to 10 yrs post-logging reached the 2016 overstory.