Contemporary wildfires are more severe compared to the historical reference period in western US dry conifer forests

•Stand-replacing fire threatens the persistence of dry conifer forests in the western US.•The prevalence of stand-replacing fire since 1985 is much higher compared to the historical reference period (∼1600–1875).•The prevalence of contemporary stand-replacing fire in wilderness is slightly lower than in non-wilderness.•The prevalence of stand-replacing fire in the Gila Wilderness is much lower than that observed in the broader ecoregion.•Fire will continue to erode the extent of dry conifer forests unless they are restored to conditions resilient to stand-replacing fire.