Risk analysis in energy projects using Bayesian networks: A systematic review

This systematic review summarizes the use of Bayesian networks in assessing risk in the energy sector based on peer-reviewed publications. The interest in risk analysis of the energy sector has increased with the number of energy resources and energy demand due to the need to supply energy with minimized interruptions and avoid hidden costs related to maintenance and recovery from accidents. A Bayesian network is a powerful tool that harmonizes information and expert judgment to evaluate the probability of different scenarios and events, making them helpful in assessing risk in the energy sector. However, their use in other energy systems development, such as oil refineries, nuclear power plants and biodiesel plants, has not been analyzed in a review. A systematic review has identified and appraised studies with Bayesian network applications in energy production, use and distribution for their scope, modeling aspects and use. The review shows that the applications of Bayesian networks in the energy sector can be improved regarding modeling choices, and recommendations for future works are drawn to aid the standardization of modeling practices.