Quantifying the independent contributions of climate and land use change to ecosystem services

•InVEST and CASA model was applied to establish a scenario simulation framework.•The independent contributions of CLC and LUCC to ecosystem services change and their dynamic change were distinguished in the study.•CLC was the dominant factor of WY and SR change, and LUCC was the dominant factor of NPP change.•Precipitation condition, temperature, and rapid urbanization leads to the fluctuation of the independent contributions of CLC and LUCC change.