Roles of proximate determinants of fertility in recent fertility decline in Ethiopia: Application of the Revised Bongaarts Model

Abstract Objectives: Understanding factors contributing to the recent fertility decline and their level of fertility inhibiting effect has a paramount policy implication in a given country . So, in this paper, the 2015 revised Bongaarts model of proximate determinants of fertility was applied, and the contribution and trends of each of the determinants over one and half of the decade (from 2005 to 2016) was evaluated. This study utilized the publicly available data from the Ethiopian demographic and health survey of 2005, 2011 and 2016. The revised and fine-tuned Bongaart's model of proximate fertility determinants was used throughout for data analysis. Results: Postpartum insusceptibility contributed the highest fertility inhibiting effect in all the three EDHS and its level is more prominent among the poorest women. Contraceptive use was the second leading fertility inhibiter and its effect was significantly increased from 15% (inhibition effect by 2005) to 37% (fertility inhibiting effect by 2016). This is an increment in fertility reduction effect nearly 26%. In conclusion, over the last one and half-decade, contraceptive use was the single most important determinant responsible for fertility decline in Ethiopia. To achieve the fertility of replacement level, the country needs a contraceptive prevalence rate of 69%.