Baseload power potential from optimally-configured wind, solar and storage power plants across the United States

Abstract In the present paper, we assessed the potential for local wind, solar PV, and energy storage to provide baseload (constant, uninterrupted) power in every county of the contiguous United States. The amount of available capacity between 2020 and 2050 was determined via a least-cost optimization model that took into account changing costs of constituent technologies and local meteorological conditions. We found that, by 2050, the potential exists for about 6.8 TW of renewable baseload power at an average cost of approximately $50 / MWh, which is competitive with current wholesale market rates for electricity. The optimal technology configurations constructed always resulted in over two hours of emergency energy reserves, with the amount increasing as the price of energy storage falls. We also found that, given current price decline trajectories, the model has a tendency to select more solar capacity than wind over time. A second part of the study performed three million simulations followed by a regression analysis to generate an online map-based tool that allows users to change input costs assumptions and compute the cost of renewable baseload electricity in every contiguous US county.