Is Trump a Symptom or a Cause? Economic, Political and Ideological Foundations of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the United States (First Draft)

The US is amongst the worst-performing countries at combating COVID-19. And within the US, red (Republican) states have significantly higher cases per capita than blue (Democratic) states. We use cross-country, state, and county-level data to provide a comprehensive analysis of economic, political, and psychological factors contributing to these differences. An inferior social safety net and American conservatism systematically correlate with the realization and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and mask wearing from April to September. Economic inequality and weak social safety nets drive the economically vulnerable to work outside their homes, increasing mobility and reducing social distancing during early stages of the pandemic. Conservative ideology, anti-intellectualism, and evangelicalism drive people to politicize social distancing and mask wearing. Both factors predict a premature reopening in many states, and have a strong correlation with the drifting of COVID-19 epicenters to red states over the course of 2020. These factors have more explanatory power than partisanship in the first half year of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. However, from October on, closer to the presidential elections, partisanship is a better predictor of anti-COVID measures and explains well the regional variances of confirmed cases across states and counties. This indicates that partisanship is not the solely important factor in determining COVID-19 response and outcome, but its impact is likely to have been magnified as time goes by.