Epidemiologic Modeling of COVID-19 in Amhara Region, Ethiopia: Using The Best and Worst Scenarios Experienced in The World

Abstract Background: The ongoing pandemic of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is currently the first public health agenda. Citizens of resource-poor countries like Ethiopia could be most affected by the pandemic unless aggressive plans are implemented. Despite the prevention and control efforts being made at the national and regional levels, there is no evidence about the worst and best scenarios in the number of COVID-19 cases expected in the Amhara Regional. Besides, there were no efforts to develop predicting models of future values in COVID-19 anticipated cases expected based on the current global trend.Objective: Forecast the latest epidemic situations by estimating and predicting cases and deaths of COVID-19 in the Amhara region.Methods: This study employed models by using the expected number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Amhara National Regional State using the worst scenarios faced in the world. Data were extracted using a checklist. Existing data on morbidity and mortality by age and sex were collected through a literature search strategy including PubMed/Medline and the Google scholar database. Besides, the Worldometer of the novel COVID-19 was used as a source of data. This study used MS-Excel spreadsheet program for data extraction. COVID-19modeling was made using Susceptible- Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and WHO DisMod II software. Result: Without any pharmacological intervention, based on the SEIR model, the expected number of peak COVID-19 cases could reach about 3 million cases occurring on July 29th, 2020.However, with an intervention that could reduce the transmission by 30%, would push the peak period to 22 days (20thAugust). Using the Susceptible–Infected—Recovered model without non-pharmacologic interventions, the expected number of peak COVID-19 cases is 5,947,685, occurring on July 2, 2020.The peak number of Hospitalization is 820, 781, in need of ICU 279,541and deaths 53,529. With the DisModII modeling, outputs showed that males are more affected than females. Accordingly, the total incident cases in the region were estimated to be 837,348 (474, 809 male and 362,540 female). The expected number of total deaths was also estimated at 44,247 (30, 176 male and 14, 071 female). Also, the middle age group is more infected but less at risk of death. The recovery rate decreases drastically as age increase.Conclusion: The discrepancies in findings from the three models used in this study could be driven mainly by data limitation in the Ethiopia context. However, our results from the different models highlight the need for more intervention on non-pharmacological interventions. Besides, highly influential parameters urge further study for better effective evidence-based decision making.