Analysis of Vaccine Supply and Demand in National Immunization Program for Children and the need for Establishing Vaccine Stockpiles in China

Abstract Introduction The number of vaccines used in China's childhood immunization program had continued to increase, from four in 1978 to ten in 2019. We described the supply and demand of vaccines, and compared the ratio of vaccine supply and demand of each vaccine to illustrate the shortage of vaccines and the need of vaccine stockpiles in China. Methods We downloaded the manufacturers supplying vaccines and the vaccination requirements for the national immunization program for children from 2016 to 2019 in the National Immunization Program Information system, as well as the batch issue data of biological products from the official website of China Academy of Food and Drug Control (CFDA). Vaccine prices were obtained from Chinese Central Government Procurement (CCGP).The demand, supply, and the ratio of vaccine supply and demand of each vaccine were calculated respectively. Results On average, five out of ten vaccines were supplied by three or more enterprises, three kinds of vaccines were supplied by two enterprises and two kinds of vaccines were supplied only by one enterprise between 2016 to 2019. The ratio of vaccine supply and demand of Diphtheria-tetanus and Group A meningitis polysaccharide were 79.52% and 67.99% respectively, with a potential shortage. There were three vaccines with a supply-demand ratio below 80% in 2016–2018, and five in 2019. The number of potential vaccine shortage was increasing. The average price of vaccines with potential shortage was $ 0.28. The average price of other vaccines without shortage was $ 1.8. Conclusions Most vaccines used in the childhood immunization program are available to meet demand, but there are also some vaccines with the risk of shortage and the number of vaccines with the risk of shortage tends to increase. The next step is to develop a national stockpiling mechanism to avoid a shortage of vaccines.