Potential Implications of Future Climate Change And Extremes On Health, Agriculture, Water, And Cryosphere Sectors In The Kabul River Basin

Abstract Increasing temperature and variability in precipitation are affecting different sectors in the Himalayan region. This study aims to quantify the future scenario and related extreme indices in the Kabul River Basin of the western Himalaya using high-resolution climate data sets. We selected the representative global climate model simulations for RCP4.5 and 8.5, based on their abilities to represent the historical climate cycle. By using a three-step methodology, we selected four models for RCP4.5 and four for RCP8.5. The analysis shows that, overall, precipitation will increase by 4 and 12 per cent for RCP4.5 and 8.5 respectively by the end of the 21st century, and the seasonal analysis shows decreasing pattern during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons. However, temperatures will increase consistently by 3OC to 5OC in RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The extreme indices were calculated based on the selected models. The extremes, like consecutive summer days, warm days, and heatwave will increase, whereas the frost days, cold nights, and cold waves will decrease towards the end of this century. Notably, more warm days and heatwaves than the baseline period are projected in future scenarios. Besides, the extremes are not homogenous in time and space. We also discussed the potential implications of these climatic extremes as related to human health, agricultural productivity, water availability, and the cryosphere. We strongly urge prompt climate actions in order to increase the adaptive capacity against these extreme changes and to build a resilient livelihood in the Kabul River Basin.