The Ukraine War, Food Trade and the Network of Global Crises

Although the Russia-Ukraine war has had only a limited impact on the agricultural production in the two belligerent states, it has triggered a number of interlocking ripple effects, which have exacerbated pre-existing strains in the supply chain. The war is best seen not as an isolated shock, whose effects can be traced along a single linear axis, but as a factor in a network of interlocking global crises. The initial small drop in food supply has translated into market panic, spiking inflation and food insecurity in import-dependent areas, subsequently enhancing geopolitical dislocation. Quantitative data on food prices and trade and production volumes will be combined with a qualitative study of the war's socio-political ripples in at-risk regions to examine the effects of the war on the global food trade and put these in a theoretical framework, outlining the links between geopolitics, socio-economic strains, disruptions to global commodity markets and food insecurity.