Phase Shift of the Winter South China Sea Western Boundary Current Over the Past Two Decades and Its Drivers

The winter South China Sea (SCS) western boundary current (WBC) has presented a significant weak-strong-weak phase shift in the last two decades, as revealed by observations and model products. Its phase shift has mainly been attributed to the joint effect of wind stress curl over the SCS and Luzon Strait transport (LST). Changes in the wind stress curl and planetary vorticity input through the Luzon Strait are the two major sources maintaining the winter SCS WBC state in different phases. The LST is closely related to the Kuroshio strength and thus the Pacific North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation. Therefore, the winter SCS WBC phase shift is attributed to phase shifts of the winter monsoon and the NEC bifurcation, which are mostly related to those of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, respectively. Understanding the SCS circulation low-frequency variability is essential to forecast its thermodynamic state and regional climate effect.