Tropical cyclone risk to global mangrove ecosystems: potential future regional shifts

Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to mangroves, yet the evolution of risk in response to altered cyclone activity under climate change remains largely unexplored. Analyzing 1886 tropical cyclones (1980-2020), we found that mangrove ecosystems were most prone to major cyclones (Category 3-5), and that intense cyclones (Category 4-5) contributed 97% of the global risk of damage. Risk hotspots were found in mangroves bordering the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea, the South Indian Ocean, and the Northwest Pacific. With warming of 2 degrees C, the risk changes were projected to be modest (+3%) at the global scale but substantial and divergent at the regional level. Risk in North America (including Central America) and Oceania was predicted to increase and decrease by more than 10%, respectively. Our results identify regions where cyclone-activity-induced ecosystem changes may be expected and where mangrove management needs to prioritize cyclone resilience.