Decoupling analysis to assess the impact of land use patterns on carbon emissions: A case study in the Yellow River Delta efficient eco-economic zone, China

Investigating how land use patterns impact on carbon emissions is crucial, as land use change is a major cause of increased carbon emission. High Efficiency Eco-economic Zone of Yellow River Delta (HEEZ-YRD) are typical of land use patterns affecting carbon emissions due to the fact they have greater dramatic land use changes. Here, we used carbon emission model and the decoupling analysis to assess the impact of land use patterns on carbon emissions based on the 30-m Global Land Cover Dataset (GlobeLand30) and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2019. The results showed that construction land increased while cropland decreased. The construction land area increased from cropland was 9.03 x 104ha from 2000 to 2010 and 1.44 x 105ha from 2010 to 2019, indicating that the increase in construction land mainly from cropland. Moreover, the HEEZ-YRD was the carbon source area. The total net carbon emissions increased from 9155.68 Gg CO2 equivalents (CO2e) in 2000-45817.44 Gg CO2e in 2019, but the increase declined. In the HEEZ-YRD, the land-use mix degree was highest in the east and north and lowest in the west and south. Zouping had the highest carbon emissions of all the cities. The decoupling of land use patterns and carbon emissions was dynamic. During the study period, the decoupling between land use patterns and carbon emissions shifted from an extended negative decoupling to a weak or even a strong decoupling. The consequences will make contributions to the establishment and implementation of low-carbon insurance policies and supply a theoretical framework for sustainable land use.