Steady decline in food self-sufficiency in Africa from 1961 to 2018

Given the unprecedented rates of climate change, population growth, and natural resources consumption, global food security has emerged as a critical issue in the twenty-first century. Over the past few decades, the African continent has been plagued by serious food insecurity issues, resulting from poverty and mismanagement of resources. Recent studies have suggested that a comprehensive assessment of food security in Africa and an investigation into the factors that affect the food self-sufficiency ratio (SSR) are increasingly essential. Estimating variations of SSR throughout Africa together with examining its affecting mechanisms is thought to be resolving ongoing food crisis and achieving sustainable food security in Africa. Here, we have assessed spatio-temporal evolutions of SSR in Africa and its associated drivers based on the Granger causality method. SSR in Africa showed an overall downward trend from 1961 to 2018, mainly aggregating in Northern and Southern regions. Among 44 African countries studied, Eastern African countries had relatively higher SSRs, while Northern and Southern regions had lower SSRs. Between 1970 and 2018, Granger causality analysis revealed that about 52%, 34%, and 34% of African countries were affected by GDP, food production, and import quantity, respectively. Additionally, the influence of climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) on SSR was detected in about 27% of countries, while their direct impact on food production was found in around 45% of the regions. Implementing viable solutions such as improving food production, facilitating international trades and cooperation, and promoting sustainable economic development can largely contribute to safeguarding food security in Africa and elsewhere facing similar challenges.