Comparison of Macroeconomic Developments in Ten Scenarios of Energy System Transformation in Germany – National and Regional Results

Abstract BackgroundMany different strategies have already been proposed for the transformation of the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this in an integrated and consistent framework is presented here. MethodsThe comparison of ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows the evaluation across a broad range of different strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed. ResultsThe effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar in average from 2030 to 2050 between the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher results for the socioeconomic variables. Sectorally, employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from very ambitious transformation, as not only RE expansion varies and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050.ConclusionsFrom the relatively small differences between the scenarios it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen.