The past, present, and future of multiple wheat and maize breadbasket shocks

Abstract Simultaneous yield shocks in multiple breadbaskets pose a potential threat to global food security, yet the historical risks and causes of such shocks are poorly understood. Here, we compile a dataset of subnational maize and wheat yield anomalies in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to better characterize the past, present, and future risk of multiple breadbasket shocks. We find that years in which at least half of all maize or wheat breadbaskets fall 10% (5%) below expected yields has occurred in ~2-3% (~14-16%) of years over the last century. Importantly, multiple breadbasket shocks have been decreasing in frequency from 1930 to 2017. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) most strongly affects the probability of multiple maize breadbasket shocks, while the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) most strongly affects the probability of multiple wheat breadbasket shocks, each influencing the probability by up to 40%. The effect of climate change on climate stress in maize and wheat breadbaskets is mixed; extreme heat will increase uniformly, agricultural soil moisture stress will remain constant or increase, but hydrological stress (as measured by runoff) will remain constant or decrease in breadbasket regions.