An Analytical Tool for Constructing and Evaluating Testing Strategic for COVID-19

Abstract Background This paper describes the utilization of a mathematical modeling tool for evaluating alternative testing cadences for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that are applicable to any well-contained congregate setting. These settings include long-term care facilities, and public-school systems. Results Variables analyzed include population sizes, contagion factor, and unique testing objectives that congregate settings might have (e.g., differing susceptibilities, or varying underlying health conditions). The tool helps evaluate cost vs benefit for a range of testing cadences (e.g., daily, every 2 days, every 3 days, every week, every 2 weeks every 3 weeks and every 4 weeks) based on use of a commercially available antigen testing kit that costs $5 per test. Conclusions Critical parameters derived as output of the model include total persons tested, average number in quarantine, average percent positives in quarantine, total testing cost, total infections allowed, cases averted, and cost per case averted. These parameters allow public health officials, site managers and/or on-site healthcare workers to optimize testing plans to align with available resources and support fact-based decision making. We also discuss how this tool can work with vaccine roll-out both in the United States and elsewhere.