A Method for Assessing Urban Ecological Resilience and Identifying Its Critical Distance Belt Based on the "Source-Sink" Theory: A Case Study of Beijing.

A reasonable assessment of urban ecological resilience (UER), as well as quantitative identification of critical thresholds of UER, is an important theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific urban development planning. The existing UER assessment methods ignore the dynamic relationship between protection factors and disturbance factors in urban systems and do not address the question of where UER starts to become unstable. Therefore, based on the "source-sink" landscape theory, we constructed a UER assessment model and a method to quantitatively identify the UER's critical distance belt (UER-CDB) using the transect gradient analysis. Additionally, we combined scenario simulation to analyze the change characteristics of UER and its critical distance belt in different urban development directions over past and future periods. The results show that: (1) Based on the "source-sink" theory and transect gradient method, the UER can be effectively assessed and the UER-CDB can be quantitatively identified. (2) The UER in Beijing shows a distribution pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast, and the High resilience area accounts for more than 40%. (3) The changes in UER-CDB in Beijing in different development directions have obvious variability, which is mainly influenced by topography and policy planning. (4) Compared with the natural development scenario (NDS), the ecological protection scenario (EPS) is more consistent with Beijing's future urban development plan and more conducive to achieving sustainable development. The methodology of this paper provides a fresh perspective for the study of urban ecological resilience and the critical threshold of ecosystems.