Application of the INGV MUF Nowcasting and Forecasting Methods for PECASUS to Relevant Cases for Aviation
crossref(2022)
Abstract
As it is known, Space Weather (SWx) phenomena can have dramatic impact on satellite navigation and HF radio communication systems, being also responsible for increases on radiation levels at flight altitudes.For this reason, in recent years the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has been showing great interest in operational SWx services for aviation purposes in these three domains.Four global SWx centers have been then appointed since November 2019 by ICAO to provide real-time SWx advisories for aviation users.In particular, HF COM conditions are assessed by monitoring the F2-layer critical frequency foF2 or the MUF(3000) ionospheric characteristic (MUF = Maximum Usable Frequency), the latter representing the highest HF radio frequency that can be used for communications over a standard distance of 3000 km via F2-layer ionospheric reflection.As one of the designed SWx centers, several key operational 24/7 products for HF COM conditions assessment have been developed within PECASUS (Partnership for Excellence in Civil Aviation Space weather User Services).Nowcasting and forecasting (1-24hr) maps over Europe of MUF(3000) and its ratio with respect to a background level are then developed by INGV, as a PECASUS partner.The MUF(3000) nowcasting uses all the available real-time ionosonde measurements in different locations in order to upgrade IRI-CCIR-based background maps, and Ordinary Kriging method for spatial interpolation.The MUF(3000) modeling performance was assessed comparing predicted values to measured ones over two test stations during strong geomagnetic storm periods, obtaining an overall RMSE < 2 MHz at both stations.The MUF(3000) predicted 1-24 hours ahead depends on foF2 and M(3000) ionospheric parameters: EUROMAP forecasting model and IRI model are used for the former and the latter, respectively.The method has been applied to Europe where there are ionospheric stations with long (for some solar cycles) historical data and current real-time foF2 observations.A mapping procedure applied to the European stations provides MUF(3000) short-term prediction over the whole area.The application of these methods to storm events occurred after November 2019 is here presented, in order to study the ionospheric conditions they provide when HF COM advisories are expected to be issued.
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