Interannual variabilities, long-term trends, and regulating factors of low-oxygen conditions in the eastern Pearl River Estuary

Abstract. The summertime low-oxygen conditions in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) have experienced a significant expansion in spatial extent associated with notable deoxygenation in recent decades. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of quantitative understanding of the long-term trends and interannual variabilities in oxygen conditions in the PRE as well as the driving factors, which was comprehensively investigated in this study using monthly observations in the eastern PRE during 1994–2018. To evaluate the changes in scope and intensity of oxygen conditions, an indicator (defined as the Low-oxygen Index, LOI) that integrates several metrics related to low-oxygen conditions was introduced through the principal component analysis (PCA). Moreover, primary physical and biogeochemical factors controlling the interannual variabilities and long-term trends in oxygen conditions were discerned, and their relative contributions were quantified by the multiple regression analysis. Results showed that the regression models explained over 60 % of the interannual variations in LOI. Both the wind speeds and concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) played a significant role in determining the interannual variations (by 39 % and 49 %, respectively) and long-term trends (by 39 % and 56 %, respectively) in LOI. Due to the increasing nutrient loads and alterations in physical conditions (e.g. the long-term decreasing trend in wind speeds), coastal eutrophication was exaggerated and massive marine-sourced organic matter was subsequently produced, thereby resulting in an expansion of intensified low-oxygen conditions. It has also driven a shift in the dominant source of organic matter from terrestrial inputs to in situ primary production, which has probably led to an earlier onset of hypoxia in summer. In summary, the eastern PRE has undergone considerable deterioration of low-oxygen conditions in the context of substantial changes in anthropogenic eutrophication and external physical factors.