Investigation of Linear and Nonlinear Variations of Radon, Total Electron Content and Meteorological Variables by Earthquakes: ARIMA and Monte Carlo Modeling

Abstract An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)-Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is proposed to analyze and model anomalies caused by earthquakes in the atmosphere and ground gases along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ)-Turkiye. Earthquakes, Soil Radon Gas and Total Electron Content (TEC) show anomalies simultaneously. Positive correlations are observed among these three variables. Similarly, positive correlations are also observed among Rn-Meteorological-Atmospheric triple variables. The proposed ARIMA model and MCS for the Rn-TEC-Earthquake relations of the measured data gave statistically significant results. This model and simulation gave also significant peaks for the effects of micro earthquakes, which are more difficult to detect than large earthquakes, especially on the ionospheric TEC.