Towards the development of a conceptual framework for Complex interaction between environmental changes and rural-urban migration

Abstract Dealing with environmental migration is a complex problem that may transform into a wicked problem. To investigate the environment-migration nexus, it is necessary to develop a conceptual model that considers the complexity of environmental changes as a cause of rural-urban migration (RUM). This paper provides such a model, focusing on the decline of agricultural lands and products and relevant economic consequences. It links the three leading “push factors” of RUM—climate change, human mal-activities, and hydro-climatic disasters— and migration. Also, it incorporates the pull factors in cities and intervening factors, such as governmental plans and individuals’ characteristics. The model contributes to bridging the knowledge gap on the effects of migration policymaking on the one hand and environmental and climate change on the other hand. It increases understanding of the full range of human responses to environmental and climate change and can be used for policymaking through sustainable management plans.