The anatomy of Covid-19 related conspiracy beliefs: exploring their nomological network on a nationally representative sample

Background: The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic was followed by the widespread proliferation of conspiracy beliefs (CBs) regarding the origin and harmfulness of the virus and a high level of hesitancy and resistance to vaccination. We aimed to test a series of hypotheses on the correlates of CBs and vaccination. Methods: The sample (N=1203), was based on a multistage probabilistic household sampling designed to represent the general population of Serbia. We investigated correlates of CBs and vaccination, including socio-demographic factors, personality (HEXACO + Disintegration trait), somatic health, stressful experiences during pandemics (i.e. Covid-19 related and other threatening events), and psychological distress. The subjects were randomly split into two approximately equal subgroups, enabling cross-validation of the findings. Based on the significant regression predictors found in the exploratory, the SEM model was tested in the confirmatory subsample. Results: The SEM model based on the finding in the first subgroup had excellent Goodness-of-Fit indices. The most important correlates of CBs were Disintegration (proneness to psychotic-like experiences), low Openness, lower education, Extraversion, living in a smaller settlement, and being employed. The correlates of vaccination were older age, CBs, and larger places of living. Evidence on the role of both stressful experiences and psychological distress in CBs and vaccination was not found.Conclusions: The findings of moderately strong and robust (cross-validated) paths, leading from Disintegration to CBs and from CBs to vaccination were the most important ones. Our findings seem to emphasize the role of cognitive/perceptual processes in CBs and vaccination.