2022 Hunga-Tonga eruption: stratospheric aerosol evolution in a water-rich plume

Abstract The January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption injected a relatively small amount of SO2, but significantly more water into the stratosphere than previously seen in the modern satellite record. Here we show that the large amount of water resulted in large perturbations to stratospheric aerosol evolution. Our Community Earth System Model simulation reproduces the enhanced water vapor observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder at pressure levels between 10 and 50 hPa for three months. Compared with a simulation without a water injection, this additional source of water vapor increases OH, which halves the SO2 lifetime. Subsequent coagulation creates larger sulfate particles that double the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. A seasonal forecast of volcanic plume transport in the southern hemisphere indicates this eruption will greatly enhance the aerosol surface area and water vapor near the polar vortex until at least October 2022, suggesting that there will continue to be an impact of the HTHH eruption on the climate system.