Trajectories of conduct problems in childhood and adult voting behaviour: Evidence from the 1970s British Cohort Study

The link between childhood mental health difficulties and adult political abstention has been overlooked despite early mental health difficulties potentially resulting in political self-marginalisation. Using the1970s British Cohort Study, we estimate developmental trajectories of conduct problems (i.e., from five to 16 years). Logistic regression, linear probability models, and propensity score matching were conducted testing the association between trajectory group membership and voter turnout at 42 and 46 years. Three distinct trajectories of conduct problems were identified: normative (n=5,235; reference group), moderate-chronic (n=1,297), and elevated-chronic (n=80). Results revealed an association between conduct problems and decreased turnout: the elevated-chronic group had a decreased odds of voting by 43.3% and 39.2%, and the moderate-chronic group by 17.2% and 16.7%, as compared to the normative group at 42 and 46 years respectively. Matched results and linear probability models substantiated findings, suggesting political self-marginalisation of people with sustained childhood conduct problems more than 3 decades later.