Carbon emissions and economic impact of EU’s embargoing Russian fossil fuels
Research Square (Research Square)(2022)
Abstract
Abstract The war in Ukraine lays bar EU’s dependence of fossil fuel imports from Russia. Here, we use a global computable equilibrium model, C3IAM/GEEPA, to estimate CO2 emission and GDP impact of embargoing fossil fuels from Russia. We find that embargoes induce more than 10% reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU, and slight increases of emissions in Russia, while both regions experience GDP losses (around 2% for the EU, and about 5% for Russia, ignoring the relative impact of other sanctions). Reacting to increasing energy prices with demand-side response inside the EU would increase CO2 emission savings, while turning GDP losses into gains. Implementing a partial embargo with tariffs largely compensates for lost government revenue.
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Key words
emissions,economic impact,eus,carbon
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