Spatiotemporal trends in pine wilt disease in China and the impact of climatic factors

Abstract Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is number one invasive alien species in China's forestry. Since it invaded China in 1982, it has spread to 18 provinces (cities) in 2020. In order to clarify its expansion law and the impact of climate factors, we collected the the census data of pine wilt disease (PWD) from 2010 to 2020, as well as the meteorological data. The "centroid model" was used to analyze the movement of the centroid of the epidemic area in China, and the results showed that the center of PWD occurrence was basically located in Jiangxi Province. Compared with the centroid position of North America (The native production), the centroid position where PWD occurs in China is southward, and the difference between the two is 10.5195°. By comparing the distribution of south boundary, north boundary and centroid of PWD in the native area of North America, it shows that Bursaphelenchus xylophilus can flourish in all regions of China, and the PWD epidemic in China will spread to the North in the future. In addition, the relationship between PWD epidemic and temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity in Jiangxi Province was quantitatively analyzed using redundancy analysis (RDA). It shows that the relationship between PWD and temperature is the most closely, which is positive correlation, followed by precipitation, which is negative correlation. Meanwhile, the effect of wind speed on PWD is second only to precipitation and temperature. These analysis results have certain significance for the prevention and control of PWD.