Flood inundation modelling using an RProFIM approach based on the scenarios of landuse/landcover change and return periods differences in the upstream Citarum watershed, West Java, Indonesia

Abstract This study proposes a new model for flood inundation modeling using the Raster-based Probability Flood Inundation Model (RProFIM) approach. The flood modeling was carried out based on the landuse/landcover (LULC) change scenario and the difference in return periods in the study area. The aims of this study were: a) to estimate the volume of discharge in the LULC change scenario between 1990 and 2050 and the difference in return periods between 2 and 100 years; b) to create and produce flood inundation maps using the RProFIM approach; and c) to analyse flood damage assessment based on the results provided by overlaying LULC data with flood inundation maps. In general, the flood probability modeling generated by RProFIM provided the same pattern and conditions it was shown by reference data. The results found several potential areas in Citarum watershed, West Java-Indonesia which are likely to be flooded based on the RProFIM approach in the Districts of Margaasih, Kutawaringin, Margahayu, Katapang, Dayeuhkolot, and Baleendah. Flood damage assessment by the flood scenario with a return period of 2–100 years and changes in LULC in the range of 1990–2050, shows that the largest estimated loss based on market value is on built-up land and agriculture. This research is expected to be used as one of the considerations in managing environmental problems in overcoming flooding in the study area.