Integrating trait-based movement into mechanistic predictions of thermal performance

Abstract Despite the diversity and functional importance of invertebrates, predicting their response to global warming remains challenging as it requires extensive measurements of physiological performance or rarely available high-resolution distribution data. Mechanistic models can help overcome these limitations by generalizing fundamental physiological processes. However, their predictions typically omit the effects of species interactions. Movement is a key process of species interactions underpinning animal performance in the real world. Here, we developed an empirically-grounded mechanistic model that incorporates allometric and thermodynamic constraints on movement and predator-prey interactions. We illustrate how it can be used to quantify the thermal performance of invertebrates under current and future climatic conditions. This trait-based approach (1) contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms underlying thermal fitness, (2) allows generalized predictions of thermal performance across invertebrate species worldwide and (3) can be used to inform species distribution models and thereby help infer species range limits under climate change.