Probabilistic causal reasoning under time pressure

Causal reasoning is a core facet of our cognitive abilities. However, the time-course of causal reasoning is not studied to its fullest. The duration of reasoning, including those that yield a reasoning error, might prove crucial in understanding the cognitive processes underlying causal reasoning. In two experiments we asked participants to make probabilistic causal inferences while manipulating external time pressure and measuring response times. We found that participants are less accurate under time pressure, which can be interpreted as a speed-accuracy-tradeoff. In addition, we found that conservative responding increased under time pressure. Surprisingly, we found that two other persistent reasoning errors - Markov violations and failures to explain away - appear insensitive to the time pressure we employed. These observations seemed related to the confidence that participants expressed in their causal judgment: Conservatism was associated with low confidence, whereas Markov violations and failures to explain were not. These findings shed doubt on existing explanations of causal reasoning that predict an association between time pressure and all reasoning errors. Our findings suggest that these errors should not be attributed to a single cognitive mechanism and emphasize the need for an understanding of causal judgements as the result of multiple processes.