Rapid monitoring of crop growth, grain exports, and fire patterns in Ukraine

Abstract Ukraine is an important global exporter of grain, especially to several countries with vulnerable food systems. The war in Ukraine may disrupt global food supply by limiting the planting, growth, and harvest of crops, or limiting grain supply logistics. We apply a statistical inference method to satellite images of cropland in Ukraine to investigate progress of the 2022 season. We also present satellite-derived cropland fire data and cargo shipping activity. We show that crop growth in 2022 has progressed similarly to a historical baseline, though total production is expected to be lower than 2019-2021. Cropland fires are present but are not significantly greater in spatial extent than a historical baseline. However, cargo shipping activity from Ukrainian ports declined to zero between March and June. Restoring operations at Ukraine ports to enable grain transport through the Black Sea is critical to mitigating global food shortages and severe food insecurity.