Diverse contributions of nature to climate change adaptation in an upland landscape

Nature provides numerous functions and services that can contribute to societal climate change adaptation. These 'adaptation services' can be sustained, latent, or novel, depend on persistence or transformation of ecosystems, and require varying co-production by people. Adaptation services also include climate mitigation. We present an approach to explore an extensive set of land use and climate scenarios that outline possible futures for a landscape, and quantify the contributions of adaptation services. We quantified adaptation success across six criteria relevant to the region, characterised the contributions of different types of adaptation services, and mapped spatial variation in contributions across the landscape. We built an integrated model of the Mackenzie District (an upland landscape of Aotearoa New Zealand), and analysed 1200 hypothetical scenarios for the period 2060-2070. We found many adaptation options, with 46% of scenarios meeting the criteria for successful adaptation. Four sustained, two latent and five novel services co-produced through financial input made diverse contributions to economic profit, profit resilience, climate change mitigation, climate risk adaptation, landscape cultural heritage and biodiversity. Successful adaptation scenarios were multifunctional, relying on alternative combinations of services allowed by spatial heterogeneity. By accounting for the numerous relationships between people and natural components within complex landscape systems, our advanced simulation approach can inform participatory pathway development by quantifying the potential for nature to contribute to future climate change adaptation.