Early spring onset increases carbon uptake more than late fall senescence: Modeling future phenological change in a US northern deciduous forest

Abstract The timing of spring leaf development and fall senescence determine how long deciduous forests actively exchange carbon and water with the atmosphere. Being able to model these dates is therefore critical to accurately representing ecosystem processes in biogeochemical models. Despite this, there has been relatively little effort to improve internal phenology predictions in widely used biogeochemical models. Here, we optimized the phenology algorithms in a regionally developed biogeochemical model (PnET-CN) using phenology data from eight midlatitude PhenoCam sites in eastern North America. We then performed a sensitivity analysis to determine how the optimization affected future predictions of carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Compared to the original PnET-CN phenology models, our new spring and fall models resulted in shorter season lengths and more abrupt transitions that were more representative of observations. The new phenology models affected daily estimates and interannual variability of modeled carbon exchange, but they did not have a large influence on the magnitude or long-term trends of annual totals. Under future climate projections, our new phenology models predict larger shifts in season length in the fall (1.1 – 3.2 days decade -1 ) compared to the spring (0.9 – 1.5 days decade -1 ). However, for every day the season is longer, our results show that spring can have over twice the effect on annual carbon and water exchange totals compared to the fall. These findings highlight the importance of accurately modeling season length for future projections of carbon and water cycling.