Prevalence of Hypertension in the Philippines in the Year 2050: Confronting a Major Challenge

Background: The prevalence of hypertension in the Philippines has continuously increased in the past 22 years or more than two decades (from 1993 to 2015), with increased related deaths due to ischemic heart disease, stroke and chronic kidney disease. Objective: The study aimed to project the prevalence of hypertension in the next three decades (by the year 2050) and the overall disease burden it may impose on the country. Methods: We utilized data from the 2018 National Nutrition Survey (NNS) and the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) to project the prevalence of hypertension in the next three decades. A spline regression, which utilizes a non-linear regression technique, estimated the missing data sets in the hypertension prevalence by age and sex in a study conducted from 1993 to 2018. Factors predicting the share of deaths caused by hypertension included variables such as ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic kidney disease and hypertensive heart disease. Post-hoc power analyses generated a large effect size (f2: 5.135) and high power (1.0) at an alpha level of 0.05. Findings: Hypertension prevalence will remain high at 23%, with a 28% increase in the number of cases (24.28 million to 33.82 million) by 2050, given the population projection (101.60 million in 2015 to 142.10 million in 2050) and seriously affecting extremes of ages (the early 20s and 80s). In addition, actual number of deaths related to hypertension will increase more than double from 90,000 in 2015 to 210,000 due to ischemic heart disease, stroke and chronic kidney disease. Interpretation: These findings demonstrate a significant increase in disease burden due to hypertension in the Philippines in the next three decades and possibly pose a significant public health challenge. Aggressive preventive and health-promoting efforts must be carried out to stem the tide of hypertensive cardiovascular disease in the country.