The role of deforestation and fragmentation in yellow fever virus dispersal

Abstract Context The intense process of deforestation in tropical forests poses serious challenges for the survival of biodiversity, as well as for the human species itself. This scenario is supported by the increase in the incidence of epidemics of zoonotic origin observed over the last few decades. In the specific case of sylvatic yellow fever (YF), it has already been shown that an increase in the transmission risk of the causative agent (yellow fever virus - YFV) is associated with areas with a high degree of forest fragmentation, which can facilitate the spread of the virus. Methods In this study we tested the hypothesis that areas with more fragmented landscapes and a higher edge density (ED) but a high degree of connectivity between forest patches favor YFV spread. To this end, we used YF epizootics in non-human primates (NHPs) in the state of São Paulo to build direct networks, and used a multi-selection approach to analyze which landscape features could facilitate YFV spread. Results Our results showed that municipalities with the potential to spread the virus exhibited a higher amount of forest edge. Additionally, the models with greater empirical support showed a strong association between forest edge density and the risk of occurrence of epizootic diseases, as well as the need for a minimum threshold of native vegetation cover to restrict their transmission. Conclusions These findings corroborate our hypothesis that more fragmented landscapes with a higher degree of connectivity favor the spread of YFV, while landscapes with fewer connections tend to act as dead zones for the circulation of the virus.