Does secondary data suffice? Protected area conflict analysis in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged protected area (PA) conflict analyses. A compelled shift towards broader use of secondary data evokes doubts about the validity of the results unless restrictive assessment procedures are implemented. To address this need, we propose a three-fold (theory-, method-, and cross-scale simulation-driven) approach to assess the usefulness of the utilized state register dataset and the indicator analysis methodology for the multi-level recognition of PA conflict determinants. With the ultimate aim to inform case study selection, we processed 187 relevant indicators from the Polish Central Statistical Office register for a Lesser Poland region. We distinguished five types of PA conflict determinants in Lesser Poland (‘urbanity’, ‘agriculture’, ‘tourism’, ‘small-scale entrepreneurship’, and ‘sprawl’) and respective groups of 15 clusters comprising local-level units. For one cluster we juxtaposed the obtained results with secondary data from another source (Internet content) and for a specific PA (Tatra National Park). Although the reported conflict issues corresponded with indicator-derived descriptors of the cluster, in the theory-driven phase of the assessment the state register failed to address the key prerequisites of PA conflicts. We proved that the proposed method can serve as a proxy for a multi-level PA conflict determinant analysis in crisis conditions such as COVID-19, provided it synthesizes the results of various methodological approaches, followed by in-person inquiries in the selected case studies.