Quantifying Uncertainties in CERES/MODIS Downwelling Radiation Fluxes in the Global Tropical Oceans

Abstract The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) program, which uses the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (CM), has been updated with the launch of new satellites and the availability of newly upgraded radiation data. The spatial and temporal variability of daily averaged synoptic 1-degree (SYN1deg) CM version 3 (CMv3) (old) and version 4 (CMv4) (new) downwelling shortwave (QS) and longwave radiation (QL) data in the global tropical oceans spanning 30oS-30oN from 2000 to 2017 is investigated. Daily in situ data from the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array (GTMBA) were used to validate the CM data from 2000 to 2015. When compared to CMv3, both QS and QL in CMv4 show significant improvements in bias, root-mean-square error, and standard deviations. Furthermore, a long-term trend analysis shows that QS has been increasing by 1 Wm− 2 per year in the Southern Hemisphere. In contrast, the Northern Hemisphere has a -0.7 Wm− 2 annual decreasing trend. QS and QL exhibit similar spatial trend patterns. However, in the Indian Ocean, Indo-Pacific warm pool region, and Southern Hemisphere, QL spatial patterns in CMv3 and CMv4 differ with an opposite trend (0.5 Wm− 2). These annual trends in QS and QL could cause the sea surface temperature (SST) to change by -0.2 to 0.3°C per year in the tropical oceans. These results stress the importance of accurate radiative flux data, and CMv4 can be an alternative to reanalysis or other model-simulated data.