Projection and Information as Explanations for the Perceptual Bias

AbstractThis chapter zooms in on a psychological explanation for the inaccuracy of politicians’ public opinion perceptions and right-wing bias, namely their tendency to “project”—that is: to let their perceptions of public opinion be influenced by their own opinions. The chapter finds that Belgian politicians’ own opinion indeed affects their public opinion estimation, and that this partially explains the perceptual inaccuracy of politicians whose preferences do not match those of the(ir) voters. Yet, projection cannot account for the general right-wing bias because even left-wing politicians estimate the public to be more right-wing than it actually is. Therefore, the chapter moves on to more general explanations: it argues that the success of right-wing parties and their leaders, the potential right-wing bias in the traditional press, combined with the right-wing representation of public opinion present on social media, may be driving politicians’ joint understanding of the public as being right-wing.