Cost-effective climate mitigation via conservation incentives targeting poverty: Bolsa Verde's impact in Brazilian Amazonia settlements

Abstract Conservation incentives have been implemented globally to support forests and the ecosystem services they provide (e.g., greenhouse-gas sequestration). Paying forest managers can increase local acceptance of conservation, while also targeting local poverty. Evidence shows that the impacts of incentives vary across contexts and scheme designs, from zero to high. We assess whether deforestation is avoided in sites where households enrolled in Bolsa Verde, a Brazilian governmental conservation program implemented between 2011 and 2018. For enrolled settlements in Amazonia, we estimate that Bolsa Verde reduced deforestation by a total of ~80’000 ha, implying 35 megatons fewer CO2 emissions over the program’s duration and with no evidence of a rebound in forest loss after the program. We find no evidence of avoided deforestation in other program sites – either settlements outside Amazonia or protected areas inside or outside Amazonia. Still, the monetized value of the climate-mitigation benefits for settlements in Amazonia only may well exceed the program’s cost across all its regions.