Heat and Voting

A considerable body of literature has shown that heat affects individual behavior and decision-making. Surprisingly, almost nothing is known about the impact of heat on voting decisions. Using municipal-level voting data for the 2016 Peace Plebiscite in Colombia ratifying the peace agreement between the state and the main guerilla group and granular temperature information, we present evidence that heat does, in fact, impact voting decisions. We find that those municipalities exposed to unusually high temperatures on the day of the plebiscite demonstrated higher support for the peace agreement. Notably, this result was not driven by a turnout effect. Instead, it was driven by municipalities with higher percentages of nonpartisan and undecided voters, greater exposure to violence, and poorer land property rights. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that heat triggers irritability and anger, making individuals vote against the status quo, in this case, related to violence and lack of governance.