No Signs of Long-term Greening Trend in Western Mongolian Grasslands

Trends for increased vegetation greenness based on satellite-derived data have been repeatedly published for the temperate grassland biome (including forest steppes) of eastern Inner Asia since 1982. Although this greening trend has been attenuated or partially reversed by drought in the early twenty-first century, linear increases in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or other parameters of vegetation greenness are nevertheless evident when the period since 1982 is regarded. However, the question arises whether these trends are part of a long-term trend driven by climate change, as simultaneously forests in the region show widespread drought-induced growth reductions and mortality outbreaks. Therefore, we hypothesized that the post-1982 greening trend was neither part of a long-term trend nor unprecedented. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed monthly maximum NDVI data from AVHRR time series and correlated these data with standardized tree-ring data of Larix sibirica from two regions of western Mongolia. We used linear regression to model the NDVI from tree-ring anomalies and to reconstruct the NDVI since 1940. These reconstructions show that the availability of satellite-based NDVI data coincidentally began during a dry period of low vegetation greenness in the early 1980s and was followed by a wet phase in the 1990s, producing the linear greening trend. No positive long-term trend in the reconstructed NDVI was observed from 1940 to 2010. This result rules out a recent climate change-driven greening trend for the grasslands and forest steppes of western Mongolia and calls into question its existence for all of eastern Inner Asia.