Abstract 53: Long-term Treatment Risk Of Hemorrhage In Unruptured Brain Arteriovenous Malformation Patients

Introduction: The long-term effects of interventional treatment (with surgery, stereotactic radiosurgery, or endovascular embolization) for unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (uBAVM) are uncertain. We address this in a large multi-center international cohort study comparing risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in the treated and untreated course of uBAVM patients. Methods: We pooled individual patient data (n=3,291) from 10 cohorts and imputed missing data. Survival analysis was performed from time of uBAVM diagnosis to intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) using Cox models, stratified by cohort, censoring at death or last follow-up, and including BAVM interventional treatment as a time-varying covariate. We tested for an interaction of treatment with follow-up time, then estimated the association of interventional treatment with ICH, adjusting for propensity quintile. Individual treatment propensity scores were calculated using logistic regression with Spetzler-Martin grade, sex, diagnosis age and year, cohort, and presence of presenting symptoms (seizures, headaches, and/or deficits). Results: Median cohort age was 36 years, 48% were female, and 77% received ≥1 treatment modality for uBAVM during follow-up. 373 ICH occurred during 32,054 person-years of follow-up (median=6.6y), for an ICH rate of 1.16 per 100 P-Y. Overall, treatment was not associated with risk of ICH (HR=1.12, 95% CI=0.89-1.51, p=0.33). However, we observed a strong interaction between treatment and follow-up time (p<0.001): between 0-1 year, treatment was associated with higher risk of ICH (HR=3.48, 95% CI: 2.26-5.37, p<0.001); between 1-10 years, we found no association between treatment and risk of ICH (HR=1.02, 95% CI: 0.73-1.45, p=0.87); after 10 years, treatment was associated with a lower risk of ICH (HR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.30-0.70, p<0.001). Survival curves for untreated and treated courses crossed around 17 years. Conclusion: After accounting for treatment propensity for uBAVM, we found an initial increased risk of ICH in the treated relative to untreated course, which continually declined over time with survival curves crossing around 17 years. These results require confirmation in a randomized controlled trial of uBAVM with long-term follow-up.